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***Something new to talk about...Can the Aggies beat Alabama?

  • jadennis said...

    Since there aren't a lot of great topics out there for our beloved Tigers right now, thought I'd chat about a potentially good upcoming game.

    I doubt they have much of a shot, but this is a pretty darn good offense, and actually a pretty solid defense.

    Compared to the other offenses Alabama has faced, here is where A&M ranks in different categories:

    (A&M rank followed by the rankings of the other SEC teams Alabama has faced)

    Total offense in conference games:Texas A&M - #3 in the nation - 551 yards per game Other opponents - 63, 73, 85, 94, 95, 118.

    It's clear that A&M is easily the best offense Alabama has faced. Tennessee had put up some good numbers, but they are #73 nationally in conference game offense.

    3rd Down ConversionsTexas A&M - #3 in the nation other opponents - 28, 61, 67, 68, 89, 116

    Again, A&M is clearly the best team Alabama has faced at converting and keeping drives alive...due in large part to Manziel extending plays.

    Plays of 20+ yards in conference gamesTexas A&M - #1 in the nation Other opponents - 67, 72, 78, 78, 90, 94

    Apparently none of Alabama's previous opponents were much of a threat on "big" plays. A&M is pretty darn good at it.

    Defensively, A&M isn't stellar, but they aren't bad. Because of their pace (5th most plays of BCS teams), looking at "yards per game" doesn't tell a lot, as their opponents get off a lot of plays as well (which equals more yards per game typically). But if you look at yards-per-PLAY instead of yards-per-game, A&M is a solid #38 in the country, which would be the 3rd best Alabama has faced.

    And just as A&M is very good at 3rd down conversions on offense, they are very good on defense as well. They are 3rd nationally at holding on 3rd downs....that's actually the best in the SEC...yes, even better than Alabama and LSU.

    Of course, all of this might mean nothing come Saturday night in front of 100k Saban worshippers, but the numbers do suggest that if the Aggies can manage to not be too rattled on the road, they have the offensive potential to be a threat. I wouldn't' bet that they pull it off, but they have enough chance to make me want to watch.

    My wife is an Aggie, so they are naturally my adopted "2nd" team. But given our own plight this year, maybe they are someone we all can get behind. They're at least fun to watch, no doubt about that. Let's hope they are Saturday as well.

    PS. Wanna remember what a team looks like after an exciting win? Check out Sumlin pumping up the celebration in the locker room after the come-back win @ Ole Miss.

    They are going to beat uat. uat's secondary is not good and we've already seen what a good truer spread team (hello Utah) can do to a 3-4 with linebackers that can't cover in space. We also saw what pace can do to them with Gus. Their dbs got exposed a little against UT, a lot against LSU, and are about to get embarrassed against A&M.

    And I have no idea why we don't go after Sumlin as head coach given he was born in Brewton. Interesting that you can have a good defense and play HUNH. Wow.

    This post was edited by nujaC on 11/8/2012 at 8:09 AM

    nujaC

  • TheFuture said...

    You're setting yourself up for a letdown if you try comparing bammer now to Bammer then. They're a machine. What LSU did to them is the only way to beat them and aTm isn't built to have a lot of success between the tackles.

    I don't know...A&M has two tackles on that line that will go in the 1st or 2nd round. Ben Melena is a very physical runner, as is Michael. They are better up the middle than you might think, they just don't rely on that. But it's there.

    When they run up the middle, it isn't just for show like it is with Mike Leach teams. They run up the middle to keep things balanced, but also because they are actually pretty good at it.

    But I think nujaC has some points. The A&M line is pretty good in pass protection too, not to mention Manziel can extend plays as well as Cam did. I won't be too surprised to see them hit on some big plays against the secondary. Mike Evans is not easy to cover at 6-5, and Ryan Swope is an early round NFL talent.

    Odds are Alabama disrupts them enough to keep them out of rhythm, keep Manziel running for his life, and will win the game. But A&M does have some strengths that could challenge Alabama. So there is hope.

    This post was edited by jadennis on 11/8/2012 at 10:21 AM

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    jadennis

  • PS. I posted a link to this thread on the Aggie board to invite those guys to chime in, but almost everyone has their posts marked as VIP, so they mentioned that they can't read anything.

    If you care, or are interested in their take, you know, talking "football" on this football message board biggrin, edit your posts to not be VIP. Just a suggestion.

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    jadennis

  • TheFuture said...

    Despite what a lot of us like to think, Saban does not fear the spread. IMO, they will not try to tee off on Manziel and will focus on keeping him in the pocket and will not man up on the receivers. He hasn't been comfortable making decisions there this year.

    Flip side, you aren't likely to see McCarron play as bad this week. A lot went right for LSU to have that lead and they're a lot better equipped to handle

    Not to mention this isn't at night in baton rouge.

    JMO

    You're probably right on all of that (except I think Manziel's decision making in the pocket has actually been pretty good....most of his mistakes have come on the run when trying to make a play).

    I'm not so much making a case that they WILL win, just making a case for why it's possible that they could.

    If I had to bet on it, I would probably say most of the same things you're saying, as that's likely what's going to happen. I do wish this game was in College Station, that would make it even a little more interesting.

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    jadennis

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  • TheFuture said...

    Thanks, ja! Sensible discussion is pretty rare around here it seems. I'm not saying those things won't or can't happen. I'm just saying they would all have to go right and it just isn't likely. A lot of our fans have problems facing how good Bammer is right now. Don't blame them, but it's just not realistic to expect them to lose. They don't make many mistakes at all.

    +1 BTW.

    Sensible? I call your posts in this thread senseless. I'm proud to say I told you so on A&M. Just like I saw the fundamental problems in 2010 with Auburn defensively and in early 2011 offensively.

    Georgia will give uat fits in Atlanta because they can throw the ball down the field but I don't think they can protect Murray enough to win.

    This post was edited by nujaC on 11/11/2012 at 8:21 AM

    nujaC