The Bodda Getta

I don't think most of the media thinks we'll struggle, as in winning 4 or 5 games. I think they just expect a drop off. And since we won 14 games last year, even 9 wins this year will be a sizable "drop off". 9 wins is only 64% of 14 wins, so that is a big step back. When you were #1, you can take a step back and still be pretty good.

Keep in mind, being so young and talented, we are likely to be a bit inconsistent. We'll probably lose a game two to teams we feel we should beat. And we'll probably win a game or two in which we're the underdog.

I break us down into "definite win", "should win", "toss up", "most likely loss", and "definite loss".

Definite win:
Utah State
Florida Atlantic
Samford

Expectation: 3-0

Should win:
Ole Miss

Expectation: 1-0

Toss Up:
Mississippi State
@ Clemson
Florida
@ Georgia

Expectation: 2-2

Most likely a loss:
@ South Carolina
@ Arkansas
Alabama
@ LSU

Expectation: 1-3

Definite Loss:

That comes out to 7-5 for the regular season, and I'll always assume a win in a bowl game, so I'm guessing 8-5 for the year.

With a bowl win, 10 wins isn't too much of a stretch. It would probably mean we go 3-1 in "toss up" games against @ Clemson, Miss State, Florida, and @ Georgia, and also go 2-2 in "most likely a loss" games against @ S Carolina, @ Arkansas, Alabama, and @ LSU.

The schedule is what makes that tough. Having 3 of those 4 "likely loss" games on the road is really tough. Those are four good teams, playing 3 of them on the road is quite a challenge.