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NOTE: The following is mostly just for fun and because I'm curious.
So I like the history of the game and like to look at records and references for upcoming events...you know, just to make comparisons and put things in context.
We'll be playing a Top 5 team this weekend, and we currently have a winning percentage of .333. If you think that combination makes for a seemingly lopsided game, you're right. But if you think that combination of things makes for a guaranteed outcome, you're wrong.
The record of teams with a .333 winning percentage for the year against teams that FINISH in the Top 5 is 3-849-5.
Three wins in 857 tries. BUT, it has happened.
The most recent time was in 1999 when a 3-8 Cincinnati team beat a 10-2 Wisconsin team that finished #4 in the country.
Before that was 1991 when a 3-8 USC team that beat an 11-2 Penn State team that finished #3.
But, that's assuming a .333 winning percentage for the year, which would be as if we finish 4-8. I don't see that happening, as I think we'll improve and end with a better record than that.
So let's go to teams with a .333 winning percentage at the time of the game, not at the end of the season.
So teams with a .333 winning percentage at game time against teams in the Top 5 at game time.
That's actually winning over 8% of the time, which isn't incredibly horrible.
Bring in the fact that it's a home game?
That is a win nearly 12% of the time, or more than 1 in 10 tries.
The last time it happened was in 2008 when Oregon State beat a USC team that went on to finish 12-1.
Do we have much of a chance given the scenario we face this weekend? Not too much. But do we have a chance? Absolutely. It has happened and it could happen again....don't give up on them prematurely.
This post was edited by jadennis on 9/17/2012 at 3:24 PM
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There's always a chance but we"ll need our defense to play the game of their lives, Kiehl will need to be very efficient with his short to intermediate passing game and the ground game will have to be going in order for us to keep it close. I believe a win is pretty far fetched at this point but if we can keep the score within 7-10 pts I'll be pleased with the direction of this team.
"Never tell me the odds."
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