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SEC recruiting classes, major disappointments

  • So I thought I'd do a quick little calculation of the classes as they stand so far (minus Kentucky and Vanderbilt). The title of the thread says "major disappointments" because I would think that fans of Arkansas, South Carolina, and Mississippi State have got to be extremely disappointed with their classes given the success of their seasons.

    To get the comparison, I used Rivals and ESPN ratings. I awarded points for the number of players rated at certain levels.

    For example, for Rivals, you get 5 points for a player rated 6.0 or higher, 4 points for a 5.9, 3 points for a 5.8, and 2 points for a 5.7. For ESPN ratings, since there are a lot more rating numbers, I went 5 points for 85 or higher, 4.5 points for an 84, 4 points for an 83, 3.5 points for an 82, 3 points for an 81, 2.5 points for an 80, and so on, down to a 78.

    So if you had 4 players rated a 5.8 on Rivals, you got 12 points. If you had 4 players rated a 81 on ESPN, you got 12 points. This accounts for discrepancies in the way each service may rate certain players.

    (Since the 8 ESPN increments include half-point values, they pretty much mirror the 4 Rivals increments, thereby making them equal in the overall point total).

    Here's how they breakdown.

    POINT TOTAL ACCORDING TO RIVALS RATINGS:
    1. 57 - Georgia
    2. 56 - Auburn
    2. 56 - LSU
    4. 55 - Alabama
    5. 41 - Florida
    6. 39 - South Carolina
    7. 37 - Tennessee
    8. 32 - Ole Miss
    9. 31 - Arkansas
    10. 18 - Mississippi State

    POINT TOTAL ACCORDING TO ESPN RATINGS:
    1. 50 - Alabama
    2. 49 - Auburn
    3. 46 - Georgia
    4. 32 - Tennessee
    5. 31.5 - LSU
    6. 30 - Florida
    7. 28.5 - Arkansas
    8. 26.5 - South Carolina
    9. 20 - Ole Miss
    10. 10 - Mississippi State

    COMBINED POINT TOTAL:
    1. 105 - Auburn
    1. 105 - Alabama
    3. 103 - Georgia
    4. 87.5 - LSU
    5. 71 - Florida
    6. 69 - Tennessee
    7. 65.5 - South Carolina
    8. 59.5 - Arkansas
    9. 52 - Ole Miss
    10. 28 - Mississippi State

    Of course there are factors at play that effect the number, such as the number of recruits, especially for Florida (15 players), and South Carolina (30 players).

    It's clear to see that Auburn, Alabama, LSU, and Georgia have set themselves apart so far. It's not always a bad thing to be 5th or 6th in recruiting in the SEC, because you could still be right there in the same ballpark as those ranked 2nd, 3rd, or 4th (as well as to 12 in the whole country).

    But in the case of Arkansas, South Carolina, and especially Mississippi State, they just aren't even close to the top programs in this years arms-race. Perhaps last years success will help them form relationships with this years juniors and will pay off in recruiting in 2012, I remember Auburn's 2004 season did that. It didn't make a huge difference in 2005, but the 06 and 07 classes were ranked #10 and #7 on signing day.

    With some big names still on the board, it will be interesting to see if any of the top 4 are able to separate themselves, or if all 4 will just add a few more relatively equal players and stay in a bunch at the top.

    PS. But wait....NO ONE CAN HANG WITH SABAN ON THE RECRUITING TRAIL....HE RULES THE STATE OF ALABAMA!! That's sooooo 2008.

    rockon

    This post has been edited 3 times, most recently by jadennis 3 years ago

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  • jadennis said... (original post)

    So I thought I'd do a quick little calculation of the classes as they stand so far (minus Kentucky and Vanderbilt). The title of the thread says "major disappointments" because I would think that fans of Arkansas, South Carolina, and Mississippi State have got to be extremely disappointed with their classes given the success of their seasons.

    To get the comparison, I used Rivals and ESPN ratings. I awarded points for the number of players rated at certain levels.

    For example, for Rivals, you get 5 points for a player rated 6.0 or higher, 4 points for a 5.9, 3 points for a 5.8, and 2 points for a 5.7. For ESPN ratings, since there are a lot more rating numbers, I went 5 points for 85 or higher, 4.5 points for an 84, 4 points for an 83, 3.5 points for an 82, 3 points for an 81, 2.5 points for an 80, and so on, down to a 78.

    So if you had 4 players rated a 5.8 on Rivals, you got 12 points. If you had 4 players rated a 81 on ESPN, you got 12 points. This accounts for discrepancies in the way each service may rate certain players.

    (Since the 8 ESPN increments include half-point values, they pretty much mirror the 4 Rivals increments, thereby making them equal in the overall point total).

    Here's how they breakdown.

    POINT TOTAL ACCORDING TO RIVALS RATINGS: 1. 57 - Georgia 2. 56 - Auburn 2. 56 - LSU 4. 55 - Alabama 5. 41 - Florida 6. 39 - South Carolina 7. 37 - Tennessee 8. 32 - Ole Miss 9. 31 - Arkansas 10. 18 - Mississippi State

    POINT TOTAL ACCORDING TO ESPN RATINGS: 1. 50 - Alabama 2. 49 - Auburn 3. 46 - Georgia 4. 32 - Tennessee 5. 31.5 - LSU 6. 30 - Florida 7. 28.5 - Arkansas 8. 26.5 - South Carolina 9. 20 - Ole Miss 10. 10 - Mississippi State

    COMBINED POINT TOTAL: 1. 105 - Auburn 1. 105 - Alabama 3. 103 - Georgia 4. 87.5 - LSU 5. 71 - Florida 6. 69 - Tennessee 7. 65.5 - South Carolina 8. 59.5 - Arkansas 9. 52 - Ole Miss 10. 28 - Mississippi State

    Of course there are factors at play, such as the number of recruits, that effect the numbers, especially for Florida (15 players), and South Carolina (30 players).

    It's clear to see that Auburn, Alabama, LSU, and Georgia have set themselves apart so far. It's not always a bad thing to be 5th or 6th in recruiting in the SEC, because you could still be right there in the same ballpark as those ranked 2nd, 3rd, or 4th. But in the case of Arkansas, South Carolina, and especially Mississippi State, they just aren't even close to the top programs in this years arms-race.

    With some big names still on the board, it will be interesting to see if any of the top 4 are able to separate themselves, or if all 4 will just add a few more relatively equal players and stay in a bunch at the top.

    PS. But wait....NO ONE CAN HANG WITH SABAN ON THE RECRUITING TRAIL....HE RULES THE STATE OF ALABAMA!! That's sooooo 2008.

    Very nice post. Nominated.

  • Thanks, Great Info.

    How can Ga. get the recruits every year but do no better on the field the last 4 years?

  • latiger said... (original post)

    Thanks, Great Info.

    How can Ga. get the recruits every year but do no better on the field the last 4 years?

    Not sure really....things just haven't clicked the last two years.

    The two years before that they were11-2 and 10-3, and finished #2 in the country in 07 and #13 in 08.

    So really it's just been the last two years that have been really disappointing. 2008 was disappointing because more was expected, but 10-3 happens to good teams every year. 6-7 is bad news.

    But the last two years.....not good. One more like that and Richt is gone.

    This post was edited by jadennis 3 years ago

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  • Richt has lost control of his program, on the field and off. I live in Georgia and it seems the consensus that they have zero team chemistry. Lack of discipline will undo even the most talented group of players.

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    "I believe in Auburn and love it."

  • jadennis said... (original post)

    So I thought I'd do a quick little calculation of the classes as they stand so far (minus Kentucky and Vanderbilt). The title of the thread says "major disappointments" because I would think that fans of Arkansas, South Carolina, and Mississippi State have got to be extremely disappointed with their classes given the success of their seasons.

    To get the comparison, I used Rivals and ESPN ratings. I awarded points for the number of players rated at certain levels.

    For example, for Rivals, you get 5 points for a player rated 6.0 or higher, 4 points for a 5.9, 3 points for a 5.8, and 2 points for a 5.7. For ESPN ratings, since there are a lot more rating numbers, I went 5 points for 85 or higher, 4.5 points for an 84, 4 points for an 83, 3.5 points for an 82, 3 points for an 81, 2.5 points for an 80, and so on, down to a 78.

    So if you had 4 players rated a 5.8 on Rivals, you got 12 points. If you had 4 players rated a 81 on ESPN, you got 12 points. This accounts for discrepancies in the way each service may rate certain players.

    (Since the 8 ESPN increments include half-point values, they pretty much mirror the 4 Rivals increments, thereby making them equal in the overall point total).

    Here's how they breakdown.

    POINT TOTAL ACCORDING TO RIVALS RATINGS: 1. 57 - Georgia 2. 56 - Auburn 2. 56 - LSU 4. 55 - Alabama 5. 41 - Florida 6. 39 - South Carolina 7. 37 - Tennessee 8. 32 - Ole Miss 9. 31 - Arkansas 10. 18 - Mississippi State

    POINT TOTAL ACCORDING TO ESPN RATINGS: 1. 50 - Alabama 2. 49 - Auburn 3. 46 - Georgia 4. 32 - Tennessee 5. 31.5 - LSU 6. 30 - Florida 7. 28.5 - Arkansas 8. 26.5 - South Carolina 9. 20 - Ole Miss 10. 10 - Mississippi State

    COMBINED POINT TOTAL: 1. 105 - Auburn 1. 105 - Alabama 3. 103 - Georgia 4. 87.5 - LSU 5. 71 - Florida 6. 69 - Tennessee 7. 65.5 - South Carolina 8. 59.5 - Arkansas 9. 52 - Ole Miss 10. 28 - Mississippi State

    Of course there are factors at play that effect the number, such as the number of recruits, especially for Florida (15 players), and South Carolina (30 players).

    It's clear to see that Auburn, Alabama, LSU, and Georgia have set themselves apart so far. It's not always a bad thing to be 5th or 6th in recruiting in the SEC, because you could still be right there in the same ballpark as those ranked 2nd, 3rd, or 4th (as well as to 12 in the whole country).

    But in the case of Arkansas, South Carolina, and especially Mississippi State, they just aren't even close to the top programs in this years arms-race. Perhaps last years success will help them form relationships with this years juniors and will pay off in recruiting in 2012, I remember Auburn's 2004 season did that. It didn't make a huge difference in 2005, but the 06 and 07 classes were ranked #10 and #7 on signing day.

    With some big names still on the board, it will be interesting to see if any of the top 4 are able to separate themselves, or if all 4 will just add a few more relatively equal players and stay in a bunch at the top.

    PS. But wait....NO ONE CAN HANG WITH SABAN ON THE RECRUITING TRAIL....HE RULES THE STATE OF ALABAMA!! That's sooooo 2008.

    +1, jadennis.

  • And of course, on the years that he does not rule the State, he claims that the talent level in Alabama is down so he is having to go way out of state to get his talent. He doesn't consider that the word is spreading about his coaching methods and just maybe players are deciding that if he's not paying, they're not playing.

  • ja-

    I loved this and gave an up vote, but man, you must have a lot of time on your hands!! coffee

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  • wargator79 said... (original post)

    ja-

    I loved this and gave an up vote, but man, you must have a lot of time on your hands!! coffee

    Yes and no.....it took about 20 or 25 minutes probably.

    I just jotted down the info 5 minutes here 5 minutes there earlier this morning. Rivals and ESPN both have things laid out in a pretty user-friendly way. You can pull up a team's page, count the number at each rating, then on the drop down menu on the side, go straight to the next team, count again, and so on and so on. Takes about 1 minute per team maybe?

    -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    I have a notebook at my desk here where I take notes as I talk to clients and do quotes and orders. The back-side of the notebook pages are stuffed with tons of these kinds of calculations and comparisons. It's really funny to grab a notebook from two years ago, flip it open, and BAM!! right there are comparisons of all the SEC wins by the top 6 programs from 2000 to 2007.....or the number of games all the top 20 winningest programs have played against other top 20 winningest programs.

    A couple weeks ago I saw a comment under an ESPN blog post where some Big Ten fan commented on the weak SEC non-conference schedules. So I flipped through two or three notebooks and found where I had written down the number of in-conference games every BCS conference team (all 65 teams) had faced within their own conference over a 5 year period (I think 2004 to 2008).

    Now that was some serious information gathering. AU had faced something like 18 Top 10 teams WITHIN the SEC during that time. Ohio State and USC were actually tied for facing the fewest (3 or 4 I think....which was insane). That gathering of information took "5 minutes here and there" for about 3 or 4 straight days.

    I should probably condense the backside pages of my notebooks into some kind of random "football almanac for the overly curious college football fan". The only problem is sometimes I find lists and I can't figure out what they are. It will just be 5 or 6 team names jotted down and some numbers out next to each one. Is that TD passes on the year? Is it holding penalties on 3rd downs? 4-star recruits in the last 3 classes? Who knows?

    But it's fun, and enjoy doing it....glad some of you enjoy it too.

    War Eagle!

    This post was edited by jadennis 3 years ago

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  • Here is the "notebook" version of the recruiting info.....

    blah

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